Lets play "How far can The ZMan run"?

Well its 5 weeks until the next crazy race. The Carkeek 12 hour. The premise of the race is simple. How many times can you run round a 1.93 mile loop in 12 hours. I start at 6am in the dark and I end at 6pm also in the dark. Only whole laps count. Just to make it interesting the trail has 430 feet of elevation gain including a flight of stairs and a nasty hill. This is going to be a real leg killer.

Here's some blog posts about previous races:
http://runningfurther.blogspot.com/2007/11/i-love-smell-of-dead-salmon-in-morning.html
http://2runandnotgrowweary.blogspot.com/2008/11/carkeek-12-hour-well-85-anyway.html 
and a cool video http://mhansonphoto.blogspot.com/2009/07/carkeek-12-hour-race-stopmotion.html  

So here's the competition. How many laps do you think I will do. And how long will it take me. Time will only be used as a tie break for people who guess the same number of laps. Time will of course be less than 12 hours! No I dont have any prizes other than I will mention you in the blog which is pretty special.

Since many of you will like to be analytical in your calculations here's some facts.

If I run at my best paces for other races these would be the distances I could cover in 12 hours:

5k pace = 92 miles / 47 laps
10k pace = 89 miles / 46 laps
half marathon pace = 82 miles / 42 laps
full marathon pace = 75 miles / 38 laps
50k pace = 63 miles / 32 laps

The longest I have been on my feet running for was 7 hours in a treasure hunt type race with lots of stops and lunch/dinner breaks. I covered 26 miles in those 7 hours and was still in good shape. I could have kept going but I don't know if it was 5 hours worth of 'keep going'.

The course records for this very hard course are 54 miles (28 laps) for women and 62 miles (32 laps) for men. I am not even close to the calibre of the people who did this.

430 feet of elevation in 2 miles is considered pretty hilly running.

Stairs are leg killers. My plan is to walk (briskly) the stairs on each lap becuase there's no point in running the first 2 just for the hell of it.

I have been running a training loop which is about 4 miles, 350ft of elevation and 220 stairs once a week to prepare my legs. Hills and stairs have got noticable easier to do.

I will have supporters cheering me every loop and running buddies have promised to come and run/walk/crawl some laps with me to help. This may not be as useful as you think if I am down to 20 minute miles on bloody stumps.

My personal goals for the race are:

  1. Go further than I have before (31.6miles/50k) and run for longer than I have (7 hours)
  2. If #1 looks good then I would like to hit 40 miles (about half way between a 50k and a 50 miler)
  3. Other than injury or fatigue like I have never felt before I intend to go for all 12 hours - walking as needed

Remember - how many 1.93 laps and how long to complete those laps.... post your comments..

Published 28 September 2009 02:34 PM by zman
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Comments

# Björn Graf said on 28 September, 2009 07:45 PM

I place my bet on 40.32 miles for some weird math reasoning on the 7 hours run…

To split it up: 21 laps in 10 hours!

# John Sedlak said on 28 September, 2009 07:47 PM

I am going to guess 45 miles (23 laps) give or take a mile. It is a tough thing to guess seeing as we aren't you. 12 hours is a long time and I could see the ability to keep the pace up diminish quickly after so long regardless of what pace you started at.

[The Zman: This guess will be rounded down to 23 laps sicne Krisc can't follow instructions ;-)]

Anyways, good luck! Are you going to tweet during it?

# EviLDeD said on 28 September, 2009 07:57 PM

Ok, I say you will do 24 x 1.92 laps. I think that works out to like 1/2 an hour per lap or something.

# Flapper_MK said on 29 September, 2009 04:35 AM

darn was gonna say 24 as its a nice geeky binary kind of number that would appeal to you but EviLDeD beat me to it! OK so I'll go 23 to be the one no one has had yet but I'd also like to take an option on 12 laps and a twisted ankle!

# zman said on 29 September, 2009 02:33 PM

I am impressed with all your optimism... its a very hard loop to run.

# Jo said on 29 September, 2009 03:30 PM

11 hours 48 minutes

21 laps

YOU GO Babe!!!

# Melissa said on 29 September, 2009 06:54 PM

I vote for 17 laps. If you are eating your bacon sandwiches and Cadbury chocolates, I'll spot you one more and say 18.

# Aaron Cunningham said on 29 September, 2009 11:08 PM

I'm voting for 22 laps.  21 will get you over 40, and then another one for ego.  :)  

I'm going to say first 20 miles in ~4:30.  Second 20ish in ~6 hours.  Grand total of 10:30.

Or maybe I'm projecting.  :)  See you on the 31st.

# Flapper_MK said on 30 September, 2009 04:31 AM

ok so 23 laps had gone too (must read more closely) so I'll go for a nice round 20 but I'll still keep my option too!

# zman said on 30 September, 2009 11:02 AM

Its ok to have duplicates... in that case you have to also guess how long that many laps will take to break the tie!! Does nobody but Aaron, Jo and Björn read the instructions eh?

# Drunken Runner said on 30 September, 2009 06:04 PM

I say 20 laps in 11 hours 43 min 52 sec.

# Lisa R said on 01 October, 2009 12:19 PM

I'm going to say 23 laps.  Why?  Because it's my favorite number...and cause I think you can do it!!!

# Coach said on 02 October, 2009 12:00 PM

I vote for 17 laps, 32.81 miles in 11:52.

# Cheryl said on 05 October, 2009 07:34 PM

I'll go with 26, since 2 x 6 = 12.  Which isn't relevant, but mathematically correct.

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